‘Unprecedented’ El Niño Takes Shape as Scientists Warn 2027 Could Break Global Heat Record

A powerful El Niño developing over the Pacific Ocean could become one of the strongest events ever recorded, with the UK Met Office warning that it is “very likely” to make 2027 the hottest year on record. The phenomenon is already influencing weather patterns in parts of the world, raising concerns about drought, flooding, food security and extreme temperatures.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that usually occurs every two to seven years. It develops when the trade winds across the tropical Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing unusually warm water to move eastwards. The heat released from the ocean into the atmosphere can raise global temperatures and alter rainfall and storm patterns around the world.

The current event is attracting particular attention because ocean temperatures in parts of the Pacific are already more than 2°C above average. Met Office forecasts suggest they could rise above 3°C later this year, potentially making this the strongest El Niño in records dating back to 1950. Scientists have also detected exceptionally warm water beneath the Pacific, which could provide additional heat to strengthen the event.

The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that a strong El Niño is developing and expects it to intensify during the coming months. The organisation has warned that the event, combined with already unusually warm global temperatures, could increase the risk of extreme weather.

El Niño’s effects can be felt thousands of kilometres from the Pacific. In South Asia, the phenomenon can suppress monsoon rainfall, increasing the risk of drought and agricultural disruption. Australia can face greater risks of drought and bushfires, while parts of Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States can experience heavier rainfall and flooding.

There are already signs of its influence. Rainfall during India’s 2026 monsoon has been below average in some areas, while hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been relatively subdued. However, scientists stress that El Niño does not produce identical weather patterns every time, meaning its precise effects remain difficult to predict.

The UK could also experience consequences later in the year. El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across parts of north-western Europe during autumn and early winter, although it cannot be used to predict individual storms or temperatures this far in advance.

The biggest global concern is the impact on temperatures. El Niño itself is not responsible for long-term climate change, which is driven primarily by human greenhouse-gas emissions. However, it releases additional heat into an atmosphere that is already warmer because of climate change.

That combination could make 2027 exceptionally hot. Scientists expect the warming influence of the current El Niño to be particularly strong in the year following its peak, potentially pushing global temperatures above the current record set in 2024.

The developing event could also have serious consequences for food security. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that El Niño can threaten millions of people in vulnerable countries by disrupting rainfall, agricultural production and food supplies.

Scientists are still studying whether climate change is altering the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. There is currently no clear consensus that global warming is making El Niño occur more often. What is increasingly clear, however, is that these natural events are taking place on a warmer planet, potentially making their consequences more severe.

With El Niño expected to strengthen towards the end of 2026, governments and communities in vulnerable regions are being urged to prepare.